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Example: Published Friday, January 11, 2008 |
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FundTrading.com
“Empower Your Trading”
The FundTrading Newsletter
Current Conditions
It was a great week to be short the market, even with the slowing trend, we racked up good returns.
Plunging earnings estimates led by the realization the consumer is curtailing their spending, set the tone for most of the week.
The Nasdaq Composite has declined 9 days out of the last 11.
Panic selling ensued on Tuesday and Friday, as the leadership groups sold off, including technology and consumer goods.
The Fed Chief Ben Bernanke spoke on Thursday, indicating the Fed would be more aggressive with rate cuts, as the economy shows more serious signs of weakening. The market is focusing on the deteriorating economic fundamentals, which is driving waves of selling, as equity exposure is reduced.
With financials starting to reporting earnings next week, they can be expected to aggressively report write downs to move beyond the credit crisis. This could create the capitulation that is needed, allowing the markets to move back to the upside. This will not indicate the declining market is over, since it is common to have a rally during a longer term declining trend.
The international funds continue to trade in a tight trading range. Europe/Asia and the Pacific have rolled over, if this spreads to the broader international ETFs, the market will loose important leadership and both the international and U.S. markets will fall.
In that case, we could see another 15% to 20% decline, not that unusual, as we generally experience 20% to 30% declines every few years.
Follow the 7 steps indicated below to take better advantage of the weekly newsletter.
Step #1: Review signal summary to confirm you are up to date
Current Market Trend Trading System Signals
|
Current Signal |
Trade Type |
Signal Date |
Index/ETF |
Trading Symbol |
| Sell |
Cash or Short |
12/17/2007 |
Nasdaq 100 |
QQQQ |
| Sell |
Cash or Short |
12/17/2007 |
Russell 2000 |
IWM |
| Sell |
Cash or Short |
12/17/2007 |
S&P 500 |
SPY |
| International Funds |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Brazil |
EWZ |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Canada |
EWC |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
China 25 |
FXI |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Emerging Markets |
EEM |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Europe/Asia |
EFA |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Germany |
EWG |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Latin America 40 |
ILF |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Pacific |
EPP |
* Short applies to Growth & Speculative Portfolio Strategies only, Conservative & Aggressive Portfolio Trading Strategies move into cash.
Monday ended with a mixed market, but selling in leading stocks indicated eroding confidence, leading to a heavy market sell-off on Tuesday. The market came back on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq reporting its first positive day in eight days.
With disappointing retail data on Thursday and negative economic information from the Fed Chief, the market managed slight gains. But the reality of slowing economic conditions set in, and the market plunged on Friday.
The Financial stocks did firm up on Friday, indicating a possible turning point in financials in the next week or two.
For the week, the trend continued to support our short trades, with the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 moving down 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively. The S&P 500 declined 0.8.
Step #2: Review current trade performance
Market Trend Trading System
Current U.S. Short Trade Performance thru 1/11/08
|
Trade Type |
Date Issued |
ETF/Symbol |
Conservative |
Growth |
Aggressive |
Speculative |
| Cash or Short |
12/17/2007 |
Nasdaq 100 QQQQ |
Cash |
5.7% |
Cash |
11.4% |
| Cash or Short |
12/17/2007 |
Russell 2000 IWM |
Cash |
4.5% |
Cash |
9.0% |
| Cash or Short |
12/17/2007 |
S&P 500 SPY |
Cash |
2.9% |
Cash |
5.8% |
|
International Returns from Last Trade |
|
Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Brazil EWZ |
24.2% |
24.2% |
48.5% |
48.5% |
|
Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Canada EWC |
3.4% |
3.4% |
6.8% |
6.8% |
|
Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
China FXI |
21.7% |
21.7% |
43.5% |
43.5% |
|
Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Emerging EEM |
10.8% |
10.8% |
21.5% |
21.5% |
|
Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Europe/Asia EFA |
1.3% |
1.3% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
| Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Germany EWG |
5.0% |
5.0% |
10.0% |
10.0% |
| Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Latin Amer ILF |
12.6% |
12.6% |
25.2% |
25.2% |
| Closed to Cash |
11/12/2007 |
Pacific EPP |
10.5% |
10.5% |
21.0% |
21.0% |
* Short applies to Growth & Speculative Portfolio Strategies only, Conservative & Aggressive Portfolio Trading Strategies move into cash.
Step #3: Editor's Exit Points: Dates profit taking was recommended in a Market Alert during the current Short trade
Nasdaq 100 Exit Point: 1/9/2008 liquidate 33% of your Short position
Russell 2000 Exit Points: 1/9/2008 liquidate 33% of your Short position
S&P 500 Exit Points: 1/9/2008 liquidate 33% of your Short position
International Exit Points: none - no active trades
For more consistent returns, follow Editor's Exit Points, indicating when to take partial profits by selling 33% of your position. For help, see the Editor's Recommendations in the "How To Trade / Trading Tips" section on the website or just follow the Market Alerts that are e-mailed to you indicating when to take some profit.
Step #4: Current Percent Invested when following the Editor's Exit Points
Like a gas gauge, indicates percent of shares still invested in a current trade; Full, 66%, 33%, or Trade Closed. Each time take some profit is indicated, sell 33% of your shares. Note: If trade is disrupted, it could fall directly to Trade Closed.
Index/ETF Current Position Trading Strategy
Nasdaq 100: Cash position Conservative & Aggressive
66% Short position Growth & Speculative
Russell 2000: Cash position Conservative & Aggressive
66% Short position Growth & Speculative
S&P 500: Cash position Conservative & Aggressive
66% Short position Growth & Speculative
International: Cash position All
Step #5: What to consider next?
Today's Update:
Existing Members: Hold your current Short positions until a change is indicated in the next Market Alert. We do not suggest adding to positions, due to the slowing trend.
New Members: We do not recommend starting a trade during a slowing trend, wait for a rank of 1 in Trend Strength, which will be indicted in a future Market Alert.
Watch for periodic updates in the Market Alerts, indicating the next steps to take for both new and existing members.
Remember, when a trade is indicated, the entry point is in effect for two days, beyond two days, invest no more than 1/3 of your normal position, until a new Market Alert is issued.
For reference, here is our last Market Alert, dated: January 9th, 2008
Trend strength has slowed to a 2. Time to take some profit, liquidate 33% of your Short shares.
We witnessed short covering in the market today, as downward pressure eased and there is an attempt to form a bottom. This does not mean the Short trend has or will change direction at this time, but do not get greedy, take some profit at market open.
End of Market Alert
Step #6: Review Editor's Trend Strength Rank. A good reference for both new and existing members entering or adding to a trade. The weekly rankings are based on short term technical and fundamental analysis.
We only recommend entering trades during the Strong Trend period (rank of 1). Therefore, refrain from entering or adding to trades at this time.
Step #7: Optional - (For those not following one of our portfolios). To improve results during a trade, consider rotating out of funds ranked three, while rotating into funds ranked one.
Trend Strength Rank
1 = Strong Trend
2 = Slowing Trend
3 = Trend May Change Direction
|
MTTS Signal |
Trade Type |
Signal Date |
Rank |
Index/ETF |
Trading Symbol |
| Sell |
Short or Cash |
12/17/2007 |
2 |
Nasdaq 100 |
QQQQ |
| Sell |
Short or Cash |
12/17/2007 |
2 |
Russell 2000 |
IWM |
| Sell |
Short or Cash |
12/17/2007 |
2 |
S&P 500 |
SPY |
| International Funds |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
Brazil |
EWZ |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
Canada |
EWC |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
China 25 |
FXI |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
Emerging Markets |
EEM |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
Europe/Asia |
EFA |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
Germany |
EWG |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
Latin America 40 |
ILF |
| Sell |
Cash |
11/12/2007 |
3 |
Pacific |
EPP |
Market Movers Next Week: Tuesday's Financial Earnings, Retail Sales, Core PPI & CPI, Job Claims, Leading Indicators
Reports to Watch Next Week
| Monday |
none |
| Tuesday |
Retail Sales, PPI, Core PPI, Business Inventories |
| Wednesday |
CPI, Core CPI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Fed Beige Book |
| Thursday |
Housing Starts, Building Permits, Job Claims, Oil Inventories |
| Friday |
Leading Indicators, Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prel. |
Portfolio Performance
Global Portfolio - Actual Performance - 2007 Closed Trades
See the How To Trade / Portfolio section on the website for portfolio details.
Use the following chart as a reference. Includes February and July fund rebalance. Reflects 2007 Capital Gains, it summarizes the trades that closed in 2007, including the profit or loss on open trades through 12/31/07. For example, the first trade opened on 8/17/06 and closed on 3/5/07, creating a 2007 capital gain. All trades are considered closed on 12/31/07. Growth and Speculative Trading Strategy returns were reduced by short trading losses in 2007.
|
Global Portfolio* |
Trade Start Date |
Trades Thru |
Trading Strategy Conservative |
Trading Strategy Growth |
Trading Strategy Aggressive |
Trading Strategy Speculative |
| Conservative |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
15.3% |
4.2% |
30.6% |
8.5% |
| Growth |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
16.5% |
4.7% |
33.0% |
9.5% |
| Aggressive |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
18.9% |
5.1% |
37.8% |
10.2% |
| Speculative |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
18.4% |
3.5% |
36.8% |
7.2% |
International Portfolio - Actual Performance - 2007 Closed Trades
See the How To Trade / Portfolio section on the website for portfolio details.
Use the following chart as a reference. Includes February and July fund rebalance. Reflects 2007 Capital Gains, it summarizes the trades that closed in 2007. For example, the first trade opened on 8/17/06 and closed on 3/5/07, creating a 2007 capital gain. All trades are considered closed on 12/31/07.
|
International Portfolio* |
Trade Start Date |
Trades Thru |
Trading Strategy Conservative |
Trading Strategy Growth |
Trading Strategy Aggressive |
Trading Strategy Speculative |
| Conservative |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
24.6% |
16.7% |
49.3% |
33.6% |
| Growth |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
25.6% |
17.2% |
51.3% |
34.5% |
| Aggressive |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
31.0% |
18.0% |
62.0% |
36.1% |
| Speculative |
8/17/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
29.8% |
14.6% |
59.7% |
29.4% |
Forward FundTrading e-Mails to your Text Capable Cell Phone
You can now have your FundTrading e-mails forwarded to your text message capable cell phone by using this free service, normal text message charges may apply: https://www.teleflip.com/ You can select just the e-mail addresses you want to receive e-mails from and a smart phone is not required. MSN and Hotmail also offer a similar service.
Want to trade more often, check out our Options Trading section!
Options are increasing in popularity for short term traders. However, due to their high risk we only recommend options trading using risk capital. The ability to highly leverage a small investment makes options attractive to many traders. Invest in Calls during Market Trend Trading System Buy signals and Puts during Sell signals. But do not get greedy, sell your options after any quick run up in price. Visit the Options page in the How to Trade section for more information.
How to Correlate Funds to the MTTS that FundTrading does not track.
There are many reasons to trade other ETFs, mutual funds and stocks with the Market Trend Trading System. We have placed "How to Correlate" instructions in both the "How to Trade/401k" section for funds and the "How to Trade/Individual stocks" section for stocks.
Not getting your FundTrading Newsletter e-mail?
We use an e-mail service which allows us to be approved by many of the large ISPs as a volume e-mailer. If you are a new member reading this on the website, and you did not receive the Friday, FundTrading Newsletter, check your junk mail folder and add newsletter@fundtrading.com to your safe/white list or address book.
I'm always interested in hearing your success stories and what is on your mind.
E-Mail me at: roger@fundtrading.com
Until next week!
Roger C. Britton
CEO & Publisher
FundTrading.com, LLC
Disclaimer:
The FundTrading Newsletter and its Market Alerts are published by FundTrading.com, LLC. FundTrading is a financial publishing firm which provides analysis of the securities markets. The Newsletter is of general and regular circulation, and no consideration can be or is made toward a subscriber’s unique financial circumstances. FundTrading does not provide customized investment advice, which can only be provided by your personal investment advisor or broker. The materials published by FundTrading are for informational and educational purposes only. The FundTrading Model Portfolio performance results are based on simulated trades, using historical data, assuming entry and exit points that could have been obtained during regular market conditions. All returns are calculated before the deduction of commissions, fees and taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk of loss and the potential exists to lose money. If you engage in margin investing your loss may exceed the amount invested. No information contained in this Newsletter or Market Alert is intended as investment, tax, or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security, or fund. FundTrading utilizes sources believed to be reliable, but due to the number of sources and the reliability of electronic distribution, FundTrading can not assure you that the information is accurate or complete. FundTrading disclaims any and all responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, completeness, reliability, or operability of the services or data described, offered, or available through this Newsletter or Market Alert.
You may not retransmit, disseminate, sell, publish, broadcast, or circulate this Newsletter or Market Alert without the express written consent of FundTrading. You are entitled to use the information or content in this Newsletter or Market Alert for your personal, non-commercial use only
For the complete terms applicable to this communication, see the Terms and Conditions at: http://www.fundtrading.com/
E-Mail: support@fundtrading.com Copyright 2006 by FundTrading.com, LLC. All rights reserved.
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